Vast Offshore Wind Potential in Japan
[Impact LIVE] Vast Potential for Japan Offshore Wind Ambitions (Part of APAC Wind Energy Week 2023)
Date & Time: 15:30 - 17:30, GMT+9, Feb 7 Tuesday
Format: Digital Conference (Zoom Webinar)
“I do believe that the Japanese government will continue to support both fixed space and floating offshore wind in future.”
-Roland Thompson, Executive Officer and Head of Business Improvement,
Green Power Investment Corporation
Japan's offshore wind potential is enormous and could play a crucial role in the country's efforts to achieve its renewable energy goals. It has estimated that Japan’s long-term potential for offshore wind energy is around 1,100 GW. Meanwhile, the Japanese government has set ambitious targets, aiming to install up to 45 GW of offshore wind power by 2040. To stay up-to-date on market trends and industry developments, IMPACT Japan Live was hosted on February 7th to provide insights and stakeholder reflections.
Our Top 6 Key Takeaways:
1. Japan Offshore Wind Forecast: Market to Reach Gigawatt Scale after 2027 (BNEF)
The Japanese offshore wind market is expected to reach the peak until 2028, although the Japanese government has already started or initiated the bidding process. The tender process in Japan is complex and demanding, which results in a timeline that can be as long as 6-8 years. Meanwhile, offshore wind tender basically is the only way of building large-scale offshore wind project in Japan. For these reasons, having a large and frequent government offshore wind tenders on a regular basis as planned is necessary to meet implement offshore wind deployment goals.
2. Institutional Investment Activates Japanese Offshore Development, but Construction Risk Challenges Equity Raising (Development Bank of Japan)
The growth of the Japanese offshore wind industry is being fueled by a growing interest from institutional investors and the availability of more financial mechanisms for financing offshore wind projects, such as project finance, EBL (Equity backed loan) and funds. Nevertheless, worth notedly raising capital from institutional investors remains a challenge due to their relative reluctance to accept the construction risks associated with these projects.
3. New Rules and Key Issues with Japan's Second Round Offshore Wind Tender (White & Case)
Ceiling price JPY 19 (except Saikai)
Offtake by FIP (Feed-in Premium)
1GW limit on winning multiple sites
Maximum of 120 points being assigned to price, which means that price component would probably be the decisive factor in winning the bid. Yet it is still unclear how these point allocations work in practice.
4. Floating Wind's Future Hinges on Lifting 12 Nautical Mile Restriction (OWC)
Although only a few demonstration projects are underway in Japan right now, a number of large-scale projects are in the planning and development phase and the industry is expected to take-off properly after 2030. To enable Japan to increase floating offshore wind potential to 1775GW, priority considerations can be given to lifting the 12 nautical mile leasing limitation. Setting an ambitious floating offshore wind target and supporting the development of the supply chain is also an important step that the Japanese government can take to promote the growth of the floating wind energy industry.
5. The Urgent Needs for Developers of Offshore Wind Projects in Japan in terms of Ports Availability and Vessel Logistics
Tohoku is a popular destination for offshore wind developers due to its favorable wind conditions and proximity to major demand centers. The shortage of government-designated port facilities has put the Japanese offshore wind industry in a difficult position in the face of a continuing growth trend.
The scarcity of vessels availability and transportation issue in Japan have somewhat cause a long evaluation process and expensive costs for developers, a thorny issue that developers themselves need to break through urgently.
6. Unleashing Japan Offshore Wind Potential with “Tighter” Cooperation
Finally, collaboration between various stakeholders including governments, banks or other financial institutions, technology providers, and service providers can maximize investment opportunities in the offshore wind sector. By working together to develop investment models and support structures, Japan's offshore wind industry can achieve greater success.
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